Against the prediction of pundits (and bookies alike), PAS won with more than 65% of the popular votes in Permatang Pasir, just inches away in percentage from its result in 2008. For those expecting the same or better achievement than 2008, we have to be reminded of the various limiting factors such as this being only a by-election compared to the high-spirited 308 political tsunami, the fact that the polling day was held on a working Tuesday, UMNO’s heavy investment in campaigning and its religion and racial campaign strategy.

As the euphoria of the Permatang Pasir by-election subside, it’s time for post-mortems and perhaps for some, soul searching.

End of the road for UMNO?

The whole Permatang Pasir by-election showed that UMNO-Barisan Nasional is at its wits end. The party is plagued with internal power struggle at grassroot level with local warlords trying to vie for what is left of their traditional power base in Permatang Pauh. This may have resulted in protest votes against UMNO by its own members during the by-election. One thing that appalled both voters and observers alike was UMNO fielding a candidate with record of financial misconduct and was subsequently dibarred by the Bar Council. Rohaizat Othman was said to be not the most popular candidate for many local UMNO members. Insiders had indicated that the preferred choice was one Cikgu Zaidi, Permatang Pauh UMNO Youth chief. Yet, it seemed that Rohaizat, despite his many professional and individual flaws and grassroot objections, managed to be selected as UMNO’s Permatang Pasir candidate. Perhaps an evident of the existence of powerful warlords who can push forth their own agendas to the highest leadership when necessary.

The use of race and religion in their campaigning also showed UMNO’s desperation. On one hand, in Malay majority areas, UMNO campaigners attacked PAS as being a traitor to Islam and subservient to secular DAP while labeling Anwar Ibrahim as a traitor to the Malay race. On the other hand, in non-Malay majority areas, UMNO through its partners in the Barisan Nasional coalition, MCA and Gerakan, used scare tactics to instill fear of PAS being an Islamic fundemantlist party who will infringe on the rights of the non Muslim if they win, including banning of alcohol and pork.

Days away from the celebrating more than half a decade of Independence, with slogans such as 1Malaysia being repeated again and again even during the by-election campaign, UMNO and Barisan Nasional still see it fit to pit one race against another and to portray themselves as hero of a particular race instead of all Malaysians. The most unfortunate thing was, UMNO’s coalition partners played along despite a very clear message from the Rakyat that we have rejected communal-based politics.

UMNO-BN’s agenda becoming irrelevant

UMNO had purportedly spent millions of ringgit in the Permatang Pasir campaign and used tactics such as handing out cash and goodies to locals, employing the Manek Urai strategy of promising “Anak Emas” development, raising the issue of race and religion and even said to have used Government machineries to aid their campaigning. The result? – An improvement of their margin against PAS compared to 2008, an improvement of about 1%.

No doubt UMNO-owned media will report that PAS-Pakatan Rakyat’s majority has declined and UMNO has achieved better results this time, spinning the news towards maintaning the ego of UMNO leaders. Yet, if reality does not check in after 7 consecutive defeat in by-elections in the past one year, UMNO will remain irrelevant until the showdown in the 13th General Election when Barisan Nasional will eventually suffer the defeat of their Parliamentary majority. After spending millions of ringgits and employing ll sorts of tactics, UMNO only managed to return such a minute improvement in Permatang Pasir. This call for drastic actions within the party, including the realization that the politics of race and religion and the politics of “fitnah” (defamation) have been rejected by the people.

Lessons for UMNO-BN are also lessons for PAS-Pakatan Rakyat.

The results of the Permatang Pasir by-election should be a humbling victory to Pakatan Rakyat. PAS have won comfortable margins of above 40% in non-Malay majority areas such as Samagagah, Kg Cross Street 2 and Permatang Pauh. Amidst issues against PAS’ enforced religious conservatism in Kedah and Selangor, non-Malay especially the Chinese voters have reiterated their support for the struggle of Pakatan Rakyat. This, however, should not be translated as votes of approval for PAS’ policies of religious conservatism. In fact, the low turnouts in the highest non-Malay majority area and Pakatan Rakyat stronghold, Kg. Cross Street 2 where non-Malay voters made up of 82% of the voters’ population may be a sign that they chose to not vote as a protest against PAS.

Winning the hearts and minds of the minority

Malaysia is still experiencing the ripple of the 308 political tsunami where vote swing towards Pakatan Rakyat were mainly protest votes against UMNO-BN. The future voting patterns will not be anything we have known once the equilibrium set in – neither Pakatan Rakyat nor UMNO-BN will win huge majority. When that happens, both parties will realize that every vote counts. Before that happens, both parties should begin to act as if every vote counts. Manek Urai was a good lesson in this direction. The non-Malays there held about 100 votes, or 1% of the voters population. PAS won by mere 65 votes, imagine if UMNO had put in more effort on the 100 non-Malays in Manek Urai. It is one of those odd paradoxes in democracy where the minority are the ones who decide the winner.

The only way forward for PAS and Pakatan Rakyat is going ahead, but only together. Now that the by-election has ended, Pakatan Rakyat should get down to expedite the formalizing of the coalition, a move which should include a coherent ideology of struggle. With many hot issues queuing up and threatening to blow any time soon, Pakatan Rakyat leaders have no choice but to force a compromise to form a stronger coaliation, unless they wish to return to the old ways of UMNO-BN’s political hegemony.

It must also be noted finally that the real test will come when and if Kota Siputeh in Kedah is declared to be vacant by the disqualifying of the UMNO state assemblyman who did not attend the State Assembly session twice in a row. This is an UMNO-held seat but it was won with a rather low majority – only about 3% in the 2008 – against PAS. This will be where PAS and Pakatan Rakyat will be tested, especially in the area of winning the hearts and minds of the minority, because they may be the ones playing the role as the kingmaker.

P/S: photos can be found in http://www.stevensim.org/2009/08/permatang-pasir-lessons-for-all/

Steven Sim
Formerly Special Assistant to Penang State Youth & Sports Exco

Tags: Steven Sim Chee Keong 沈志強

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