Despite the show of force – about 15000 Pakatan Rakyat (PR) supporters flooding Kuala Kubu Baru stadium on the eve of polling day – and the general optimism about PR and its Hulu Selangor by-election candidate Zaid Ibrahim, the coalition lost the by-election.

It was a huge disappointment of course, PR was the incumbent of the seat. It was a huge disappointment, especially when PR gave one of its best generals to the contest. It was a huge disappointment because this was the first by-election in a PR-governed state which it lost after winning all previous 7 of them. The disappointment can almost be felt by reading the report of PR de-briefing at KKB stadium after the result was known, Zaid Ibrahim was said to be wiping his tears.

Earlier in the race, I had thought that Hulu Selangor will be to PR what the Iowa caucuses was to Obama. Obama had a decisive win at the Democratic Party’s Iowa primary race against juggernaut Hillary Clinton. This was the first battle the little known Barack Obama, then a junior Senator, had to fight way back in early 2008 to secure a nomination from his party to join the 2008 US Presidential race.

But Hulu Selangor turned out not to be an Iowa for PR.

The coalition lost with a thumping fall, it was a painful defeat. Yet, PR was defeated in the votes, but not in the hearts of the Rakyat. The by-election revealed a clear contrast between the old politics and the new way forward.

UMNO-BN’s “Business As Usual”

It is understandable that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak would go all out to win Hulu Selangor as he saw the results as referendum to his one-year old Government. Hence, such critical motivation had led to a winning-at-all-cost strategy.

True UMNO-BN and its candidate P. Kalamanathan tried to sound fresh, appealing the people to forget the ruling party’s 50 years of wrong-doing and give them a clean sheet as if the party was born yesterday. Yet, all the attempts to sound like reformers only expose the hypocrisy of the ruling party. Barisan Nasional (BN) had 50 years to shape Malaysia into a successful rainbow nation, and they are still holding the power to do so now, but what we get daily are slogans and more slogans and nothing beyond. BN’s “business as usual” attitude was clearly seen in the Hulu Selangor by-election at least in three instances.

Firstly, early in the battle, the coalition was plagued with public displays of disagreement over its candidate. BN’s candidate, P Kamalanathan, despite winning, was a compromise MIC had to make in order to satisfy big brother UMNO into allowing the former to re-contest the seat its current VP, Palanivel had held for four terms before losing it to PR in 2008. This initial dispute showed a deep-seated breakdown both within UMNO and MIC and also between them. UMNO had increasingly demonstrated that the party was no respecter of its partners while other BN component parties continued to display subservience to warlords in UMNO. PM Najib has shown that he was more ready to intervene in BN component parties’ affairs than any other past UMNO Presidents.

Secondly, the by-election was also characterized by a maddening hand-outs spree, with allegations that BN had pledged more than RM60 million to the constituency just within 1 week of campaigning. The Prime Minister himself had personally announced a long-awaited RM3 million allocation to a local chinese school and also RM50,000 each to 100 Felda families which was owed to the them since 1994. The intensified distribution of “candies” may actually turn Hulu Selangor into the most expensive by-election for BN. The people once again had to wait either for a once-in-five-years general election or some incumbent to pass away midway to cash the cheque rightly owed to them. The ruling party was then not only bribing the electorate by giving and promising these “candies” but also in effect holding the electorate in ransom for continual support.

Thirdly, the BN campaign kicked off with a shaming-the-opponent strategy. Photos of Zaid Ibrahim superimposed with alcoholic drinks were distributed, he was painted as gambler and a liberal Malay who could not care less about his religion and race. Private photos of Selangor State Exco Elizabeth Wong was also tastelessly distributed by supporters of the BN campaign to intensify the shaming. A few leaders including UMNO Youth Chief Khairy Jamaluddin had come forward to deny involvement but without the candidate and BN top leaders condemning and stopping their supporters from such acts, BN has shown itself quite ready to employ whatever methods as long as they win. It was not merely the same old racial politics of BN, but they are also resorting to a new gutter politics.

Pakatan Rakyat Zaid’s “Harapan Baru” Politics

In contrast, PR chose to ride on its “harapan baru” (new hope) tide. Zaid Ibrahim was being promoted as a candidate who will strengthen the voice of reform in the Parliament, an intelligent and experienced leader who knows his stuff. Compared to the inexperienced BN’s candidate P. Kamalanathan, Zaid not only had experience as an MP, but was a Minister under former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi well-known for his legal reform.

Zaid Ibrahim was also touted as someone who would give up position and power to take up the cause of justice. PR leaders relentlessly reminded the people that this was one man who sacrificed being Federal Minister because he refused to compromise his values. This was a radical departure from the “business as usual”, rent-seeking and opportunistic Malaysian politics.

More importantly, Zaid surprised everyone by confessing his drinking past and refused to be dragged into BN’s shaming game. It was refreshing for Malaysians who are already sick of hypocrisy in politics. We have seen leaders more often than not assuming a “holier-than-thou” superiority, moral policing the people and yet close both eyes on corruptions, cronyism and the systematic oppression of the poor and the marginalized. Zaid therefore brought with him a breath of fresh air to the staleness of old politics. He introduced the politics of insaf (repentance) which allow space for humans to be humans and not one that creates god from the images of politicians.

So, Did BN Really Win?

Yes, BN’s candidate P. Kamalanathan won the majority votes to be the Member of Parliament for Hulu Selangor.

But the Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yasin was right, BN’s Key Performance Indicator (KPI) should be roughly a 6000-vote majority, based on the fact that BN held all three state seats in Hulu Selangor with a majority of about 6000 votes and previous MIC candidate, Palanivel used to win with majorities of over 9000 votes. Anything less than at least a majority of 6000 votes is an indication that BN has not really “won” back its stronghold. P. Kamalanathan won 1725 votes against PR’s Zaid.

Without the hindsight of return sheets data, immediate news analysis showed that both PR and BN managed to increase their votes this round compared to 2008. The voting patterns most likely remained at status quo, with slightly better reception of PR by the Orang Asli community and PR triumphing a bit more in the Chinese-dominated areas of Kuala Kubu Baru, which was already their stronghold. On the other hand, there was a swing of Malay votes back to BN but that should not translate into saying the Malays are supporting BN like before. Before polling ends, PKR has conceded defeat at Felda areas, with BN holding an estimated 70% of the 17000 votes there. Indian votes, mostly concentrated in estate areas, also improved for BN, a pattern not dissimilar to Teluk Kemang where relatively isolated rural communities are more at home with BN due to familiarity of the establishment and the people are still largely holding on to the developmental promise of ruling party.

BN also received a significant 80% of the postal votes which is equivalence to more than 35% of their 1725 majority votes.

It is not too much to say then that, given the high number of spoilt votes (731) against majority votes (1725), both PR and BN were almost equal in strength in the regular polling stations, taking out the postal votes which BN traditionally will win by landslide.

To put BN’s winning in perspective, the above brief analysis showed that its win was still largely depended on loyalty among rural folks, desires for status quo and obedience of the civil service. Increasingly these factors are beginning to disintegrate especially among more Internet-exposed Malaysians, regardless of age and race. This means, BN will face an unprecedented high risk of being rejected by a new wave of voters who has little or no prior familiarity with the party, more exposed to alternative news and opinions and better educated politically to demand a serious reform in our political system.

On the other hand, PR’s new politics is much more well received among this new breed of voters. Even if it is not for the love for PR and its leaders, more and more Malaysians are becoming increasingly aware of the need to create a two-party system in our politics to break the political hegemony of a single powerful ruling party.

Conclusion – Hulu Selangor is “New Hampshire”, PR Must Re-focus

On retrospect, perhaps Hulu Selangor is not “Iowa” after all, but rather “New Hampshire and Nevada” for PR. Obama, after riding high in Iowa lost the two primaries to Clinton. It was like an emergency brake to his new found acceleration in Iowa. The momentum for Obama was already building, but his campaign was suddenly faced with the reality of “Change is Not Easy”.

Instead of giving up, many defeated candidates would have given up if they had not do so in Iowa, the Obama campaign took the defeat as a time to refocus, especially on their direction. PR should as well. One crucial point is solidarity among its partners. PR component parties must realize by now that their individual fate is inextricably tied to one another. Refocus, yes, go back to the storyboard yes, move forward yes, but only together. I have mentioned elsewhere that PR cooperation was thus far by default rather than by design. The Opposition coalition must be more intentional in moving as a team not only during elections, but at all time, especially in running the state governments they are governing. Only by a consistent unity could PR challenge the ruling coalition’s powerful top-down machinery.

That said, PR should also continue to persist in its “harapan baru” politics as a viable alternative to the people. True, it is easy to be dragged into playing the opponent’s game. It is tempting for PR to succumb to the same old race-and-money politics when the opponent is betting on such things to win. But more Malaysians are ready than before to reject the old game. What we need is a new inspiration from PR to continue offering us fresh hope that the coalition can radically transform of our Country from the deeply entrenched culture of corruption, cronyism and racism.

And when they do, when PR come together and refocused, the Sibu by-election in May will be a South Carolina for them. After their dejection at New Hampshire and Nevada, the Obama campaign refocused and soared again to an overwhelming win in South Carolina. Of course, Barack Obama went on to win the Nov 2008 US Presidential Election against all odds to be the 44th President of the United States and its first Africa American President.

In Hulu Selangor, PM Najib used his recent meeting with President Barack Obama as a measure of success and recognition of his Government. He should have known Obama was a candidate of Change, a new way to do politics. He should have known Obama built a campaign not just on public relation slogans but on people and genuine actions. He should have seen Obama’s persistence to actualize the mandate for Change through the President’s various reforms. Our Prime Minister should have realized Malaysians are already jaded with the politics of “business as usual”.

Putrajaya is ripe for a fresh politics of hope; now do we have candidates of Change? I believe we have, but they need to refocus.

Steven Sim
The author was formerly Special Assistant to Penang State Exco for Youth and Sports and Women, Family & Community Development. He is currently taking time off to pursue his post-graduate degree.

Be Sociable, Share!

• 

This entry was posted on Monday, April 26th, 2010 at 2:59 pm and is filed under English, Kenyataan Media. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.